What does Iowa turnout mean?
So by now everyone knows that Obama and Huckabee won the Iowa caucuses. But perhaps less well known is the dramatic difference in voter turnout — between Democratic and Republican, and in 2008 compared to previous years.
| Iowa Caucus Turnout, 2000–2008 | ||||
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| uncontested (George W. Bush) | |||
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Some of the numbers above are approximate, but the trend is clear: a huge increase in Democratic caucus participants (78% more than in 2004, and 90% more Democrats than Republicans this year). My understanding is that the Democratic caucuses also require more time and involvement than the Republican ones. All of this adds up to a lot of enthusiastic Democrats — at least in Iowa.
Here's what that looks like if you break down each bar according to the proportion of support that each candidate received.
| Iowa Caucus Vote Distribution, 2000–2008 | |||||||||||
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| uncontested (George W. Bush) | ||||||||||
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What do you think this means for the election as a whole? Is this phenomenon local to Iowa, or is it a sign of things to come?
Sources:
MSNBC,
AP,
CNN,
Eric Appleman.