Ping ([info]zestyping) wrote,
@ 2004-10-23 08:08:00
Previous Entry  Add to memories!  Tell a Friend!  Next Entry
Two conflicting realities.
Have you heard of PIPA? I just heard about them for the first time yesterday on Air America Radio (960 AM here in the Bay Area). They have just released the startling results of their latest study: most Bush supporters still believe Iraq had WMD or a major WMD program, in spite of the Duelfer report in fact, most believe the Duelfer report confirmed it! Most Bush supporters believe that clear evidence of Iraq's support for Al Qaeda has been found. And, perhaps most incredibly, most Bush supporters believe that the majority of the world favours Bush's re-election.

Have a look at the summary, or see the complete report.

Here are some of the more dramatic numbers.

Perceptions of Experts on WMD in Pre-War Iraq
Regarding what Iraq had just before the war, is it your impression that experts:
  • Y: mostly agree that Iraq DID have weapons of mass destruction;
  • N: mostly agree that Iraq DID NOT have weapons of mass destruction, though it may have had some programs for developing them; or
  • E: are evenly divided on the question?
Bush supporters think:

56% Y
18% E
23% N
Kerry supporters think:

18% Y
23% E
56% N

Perceptions of the Duelfer Report
Charles Duelfer, the chief weapons inspector selected by the Bush administration to investigate whether Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, has just presented his final report to Congress. Is it your impression that he concluded that, just before the war:
  • Y: Iraq had actual WMD;
  • P: Iraq had no WMD but had a major program for developing them;
  • A: Iraq had some limited activities that could be used to help develop WMD, but not an active program; or
  • N: Iraq did not have any activities related to WMD?
Bush supporters think:

19% Y
38% P
31% A
4
Kerry supporters think:

7
16% P
50% A
20% N

Perceptions of World Opinions About the Election
How do you think people around the world feel about the U. S. presidential election:
  • B: more would prefer George W. Bush;
  • K: more would prefer John Kerry; or
  • E: views are about evenly divided?
Bush supporters think:

57% B
33% E
9
Kerry supporters think:

1% B, 30% E
69% K

Perceptions of World Sentiment About Bush Foreign Policy
Do you think the foreign policy of George W. Bush:
  • B: has made more people feel better about the U. S.;
  • W: has made more people feel worse about the U. S.; or
  • E: views are about evenly divided?
Bush supporters think:

37% B
45% E
17% W
Kerry supporters think:

2
12
86% W

(Post a new comment)

Previous poll on FOX News viewers
[info]aaronsw
2004-10-23 05:48 pm UTC (link)
I know about them because they did a poll that found FOX News viewers were more likely to have similar conceptions.

http://www.pipa.org/OnlineReports/Iraq/Media_10_02_03_Report.pdf

(Reply to this)


[info]janviere
2004-10-23 06:15 pm UTC (link)
Such beautiful charts. Is there a reason why the vertical order of the key doesn't correspond to the horizontal order of the chart in several cases?

(Reply to this) (Thread)

[info]zestyping
2004-10-23 11:15 pm UTC (link)
Thank you. (I was going to take screenshots of the charts in their PDF report, but i decided they were too ugly.)

The key and the chart don't correspond because i wanted to present the questions in the way they were asked, but i wanted to show the charts in a more logical arrangement with "evenly divided" between the two extremes.

(Reply to this) (Parent)
Some thoughts.
[info]anemone
2004-12-07 09:02 pm UTC (link)
These charts are beautiful. I think this entry is a really nice summary of the report itself.

I've been thinking about this, I don't think these actually mean that Bush supporters are less informed than Kerry supporters.

If a pollster asks you a question like this, and you don't know the answer, you're going to tend to lean the way that makes your candidate (assuming you're already leaning towards a candidate) look good. Because of the nature of these questions, it's not surprising that Bush supporters ended up answering wrong more often than Kerry supporters. Thus, I'm not sure this is really showing that Bush supports are less informed than Kerry supporters.

(Reply to this) (Thread)
Re: Some thoughts.
(Anonymous)
2005-02-11 12:59 am UTC (link)
Seems you've got some strange logic.

"If a pollster asks you a question like this, and you DON'T KNOW the answer" then by definition you are less informed ... but the reality is you are probably ill-informed (i.e. believing what the 'spin masters' in the gov't want you to believe).

(Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)
Re: Some thoughts.
[info]anemone
2005-02-11 01:33 am UTC (link)
If I'm wrong, it's not my logic.

"If a pollster asks you a question like this, and you DON'T KNOW the answer" then by definition you are less informed

Sure, I agree. But many people are taking it to mean that Bush supporters are less informed than Kerry supporters, there is often the implication that people are Bush supporters BECAUSE they are uninformed.

But if 10% of Bush supporters know the right answer, and 10% of Kerry supporters know the right answer, and Bush supporters are more likely to guess wrong than Kerry supporters, then more Bush supporters will get the wrong answer, even though the percentage of knowledgable people in both groups is the same.

Most of the questions in this poll were ones whose answers make Bush look bad, so it wouldn't be totally shocking if guessing Bush supporters jumped a different way than guessing Kerry supporters, but that doesn't not imply that Bush supporters are less informed.

It's even more of a stretch to imply that Bush supporters support Bush because they are less informed.

The reason I care is that calling Bush supporters stupid has done little to encourage them to stop supporting Bush.

(Reply to this) (Parent)

Create an Account
Forgot your login or password?
Login w/ OpenID
English • Español • Deutsch • Русский…